Economics of the Auction House, major world events (Legion)

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One would think that there is an easy pile of gold to be made during the time of a major world event like the opening of the Dark Portal, Cataclysm etc if you would have a hunch of the timings.
During a normal economic cycle in the auction houses in Azeroth there are some key states of demand.

1. Exploration

Whenever a new place is discovered or a major world event has turned things up-side down there is a rush to explore that area and to use whatever new resources that are found into making new things.
So all gatherers move to the new area and start to mine ore and gather herbs.
They then go to the auction house and sell it there. During this phase, there is a huge demand for the new material so it will fetch quite a price in gold. This is a small window of opportunity that has clear peak and then a fast fall to the next state.
At this point there are also a lot of people teaching themselves new skills and that requires quite a lot of materials from older areas. Someone with a stockpile of materials could make a fortune.

2. Stabilization

Where the materials from the new area or zone plane out in price. There will always be ups and downs but this part of the economic cycle is quite stable and long.

3. End of cycle

Whenever the rumors start that there is a new major earth shaking event in the horizon the economy has already reached a mature state and there are no real opportunities. Material prices are at a cycle low. Someone with a lot of gold lying around could speculate in materials by buying at this low price and then selling when the economy hits the Exploration phase again.

Reality check

So, how does this theory prove during this last world changing event this year? Let's see the track record of some resources during that timing. The graphs will show the End of last cycle, the new Exploration and start of stabilization. All information and graphs are from www.wowuction.com.

Saronite ore

Saronite ore, mostly mined up north showed a real drop in availability and an increase in price (from ~5 to ~7.5) the August 29th.

Titanium ore

Also farmed up north in Icecrown Valley together with Saronite ore. Here we also see an increase in price as and the drop in availability.

Ghost Iron Bar

Ghost Iron showed the biggest trend upward of the sampled materials. The drop on August 29th in availability is clear and at the same time a steady price growth that has grown over time. This would have given double the gold if you would have bought before the event and sold in portions afterwards.

Leystone Ore

Just to show the new Exploration area material for reference. The Leystone ore had a very significant and volatile start where the early birds were able to make a buck and a very steep downturn to a stable economy. I don't have the numbers from Outland or Pandaria, but it feels like this curve was faster to stabilize itself then during the earlier events. I think I have to dig through old data and see if I can find something relevant there. But for this report, nothing.

So. there is a chance to make a bucket of gold during a world event if you have the gold to speculate with.

Once again thanks for www.wowuction.com for collecting the auction house data and providing nice graphs..

Also if you are interested in investment in general. Go over to Dreamstate living for their nice articles on longterm investment.

Nowind travels to Outland

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I finally received word from Nowind yesterday. Evidently her stay in Outland has ended and she has now moved on to the Borean Tundra. So I decided to drop by in person and pick up her travel journal.

So this is the tattered and torn journal of Nowind’s journey to Outland.

Day 1

I arrived at the crater where the Dark Portal lies in the Blasted Lands through a portal in the Mystic Ward of Ironforge. I know that nothing from my previous journeys in Azeroth could prepare me for what lies behind the portal, the stories that I've heard had that in common. So as I walk the last steps up to the portal, I summon raw determination and put all my thoughts into the present and step through....

I have used portals before, but this was something else. I could feel the time shift inside. The whole process seemed to take longer than usual and a lot of thoughts had time to pass through my mind, when the fear started to turn into panic it all ended abruptly and all I saw was red.

It took a few moments until I was able to focus my eyes, but before long I saw that the red came from the land itself, I had arrived on the Hellfire Peninsula.

Day 2

I took the gryphon to the Honor Hold from the portal last night and rented a room at the inn, I was glad that I didn't have to fight my way through the demons that had besieged the portal. Before heading for bed I took the time and spoke to the people living in the hold, I found the inscription trainer and paid him some silver to teach me what he knew. When I walked back towards the inn, I became a witness to an infernal attack from the sky.

Today I will spend with various assignments that I managed to acquire last night, including demon and orc hunting.

Day 9

Received a package with herbs from Eowind so that I could focus on my inscription studies and that I did. I also took a class in gryphon flying and bought myself a snow white gryphon. This should cut the time I have to spend in this god forgotten place.

Tomorrow I will head out to the Temple of Telhamat in western Hellfire and maybe visit the Druids of the Cenarion Circle at their camp if I can find it.

Day 16

Zangarmash.

What a beautiful place even though it gives me the creeps. I would not care to live here.

Add to this that the place is overrun with naga and you will start to see why I really really really do not like the place.

But it is beautiful, even I can't deny that. My stay at the Cenarion Refuge and the small town built on top of one of the gigantic mushrooms, Telredor, earned me a nice coin in my pocket and a bunch of friendly people to add to my friends list. If nothing else, I will return for their sake, even though one of them turned me into a crow.

Day 23

Today I finally arrived in Shattrath City, even though I could have taken a gryphon directly from Honor Hold i decided early on that I wanted to travel wherever my assignments led me. But now, after three weeks in Outland I have arrived in the shiny City of the Naaru. I took the tour of the city with one of the void walkers and decided that I like the Aldor more then the Scryers.

So tonight I will sleep at the inn on the Aldor Rse. I'm thinking of setting up more proper quarters here for the rest of my stay in Outland and travel to wherever I need to go for the day. I've missed city life.

But now I'll actually cheat a little and take try one of the portals here that lets us travel back to Azeroth. Think I'll visit the Auction House in Darnassus before I go to bed.

Day 31

The last week has been intensive. I ran into Emilyfion the other day and she took me to the Mana Tombs of Auchindoun where I got a new wand and staff. In addition I've traversed Terokkar Forest, visited the Allerian Stronghold, one of the few human settlements here. I had the chance to help them with wolf and orc hunting.

After Terrokar I went to Nagrand but I do have to say that I don't understand Eowind how she could force herself to become a well reputed, even exalted, hero of the Kurenai. I settled with getting friendly with them, at least I can accompany Eowind if she gets invited to dinner.

Blades Edge was not a place for me either. I like dragons, I like them very much and being forced to see their bodies everywhere in this isolated place really made me feel bad.

Lastly yesterday I went to Netherstorm, mostly just to see the place. I helped the goblins at Area 52 with some things, the sad thing was that when I returned with the goods they needed I found out that the whole town had been attacked during my absence. Not a living soul remained.

That was the final drop, I had seen enough of Outland and if I wanted to see Shadowmoon Valley, then I would do that later.

It was time to leave and return to Azeroth...